Article in The Economic Times, Dec 5, 06
What does demography have to do with R and D?
A Wikipedia definition of “demography” points out that it goes way beyond the cursory male/female, SEC, age, town class definition that we as marketers tend to think it is. Demography is actually a scientific study of “population dynamics” and belongs to a larger field of “population studies” which examines the relationship between economic, social, cultural and biological processes influencing the population.
The most basic premise here is that changes in groups of populations in a society can in the long run cause major socio cultural and economic changes.
Combine this with the genetic theory that reproductive patterns of each generation shape the character of successive generations, for better or worse.
For marketers this will mean new sets of target groups, different consumer behaviours, motivations, fears, desires and - the most crucial for brands - a different set of pay offs. More importantly, this is where forward thinking companies need to be pitching their R and D and Product Planning tents.
Let’s take just two aspects about India’s changing demographics: skewed gender ratios and decrease in birth/fertility rates.
Flagged off as among the most imbalanced in the world, the ratio among children up to the age of six is now down to 927 girls per 1,000 boys. This is already, in some geographic areas and communities, leading to reverse dowries, and exchanges between brother/sister combinations. Add to this, increasing women power in general, and this could lead to some dramatic new social trends. (But with fewer women voting, it could mean quite an opposite set of implications too!)
Now combine this with the fact that some states have better gender ratios. Kerala, for example, has more women while Haryana has less. A small news item in a magazine reported, quite some time ago, a large number of mixed marriages between Keralites and a certain district in Haryana!
According to the 2001 census, population growth is higher among Muslims, Christians and Buddhists, and the gender ratio among children below the age of six in these communities is also higher. So they have more daughters, while the Sikhs, for example, have the least number of daughters.
Consider the increase in inter caste, inter religion, inter state and inter language marriages this will lead to. (Something that is, in any case, already on the rise.) Besides lower usage of mother tongues, mixed food habits, festive celebrations and other such lifestyle changes, this could lead to a different gene pool (and hopefully lesser public/community conflicts). Some researches have also shown that inter caste marriages result in marginally lower fertility than intra caste marriages.
Delayed marriages and delayed children also mean a different kind of parenting. More single children could mean different attitudes, and unavailability of family support as they grow up could lead to a different bag of problems.
Having only daughters, and delayed age of daughter’s marriage means daughters stay with parents longer, sometimes supporting them and caring for them in their old age.
The thing to remember in all this is that every such change for marketers means re looking at product and service portfolios. Patterns in finance, health, real estate, education and foods will surely change. Not to mention ripple effects on mental health, retirement planning and say, health insurance, to name but a few.
The other rather sensitive factor that has been highly debated in the West, but not so much in India, is the impact of the fact that the brighter, more educated women are the first to have fewer children – so there are fewer children among the elite and more children among the so called lesser intelligent, and this could affect national productivity and the gene pool.
Ageing population in advanced countries is hugely impacting marketing imperatives, leave alone government policies and the national economy. Some countries have been caught napping, while some started discussions over a decade ago. Japan for example, called academicians, experts in demographics, economists, sociologists, lawyers, political scientists, doctors and businessmen to come together to discuss and debate the implications and evolve solutions.
Who then is thinking of and debating the impact of the changing demography of India?
Most of the time the government is - understandably - preoccupied with the GDP, the vote banks and the borders.
Most of the time marketing is - understandably - preoccupied with the next quarter’s sales and the optimal use of media money in the next cricket championship; or in the more forward planning companies - next year’s relaunch with improved pack graphics and a new variant with an extra ingredient.
And most of the time, mainline media is - understandably - preoccupied with children caught in wells, global buyouts or Karan Johar’s latest moral pronouncement.
In the midst of all this, R and D and predictive Product Planning in organisations that wish to stay ahead, should start looking aggressively at population studies as a rich source of ideas for the future.
Product Planning must in fact lie at the center of a triangle, that has at its three corners: sociology, economics and genetics, all of which are linked to demography.
Marketers must start actively understanding the real meaning of demography. For change often drops in sooner than we think. Let’s at least have a point of view, if not a plan.
What does demography have to do with R and D?
A Wikipedia definition of “demography” points out that it goes way beyond the cursory male/female, SEC, age, town class definition that we as marketers tend to think it is. Demography is actually a scientific study of “population dynamics” and belongs to a larger field of “population studies” which examines the relationship between economic, social, cultural and biological processes influencing the population.
The most basic premise here is that changes in groups of populations in a society can in the long run cause major socio cultural and economic changes.
Combine this with the genetic theory that reproductive patterns of each generation shape the character of successive generations, for better or worse.
For marketers this will mean new sets of target groups, different consumer behaviours, motivations, fears, desires and - the most crucial for brands - a different set of pay offs. More importantly, this is where forward thinking companies need to be pitching their R and D and Product Planning tents.
Let’s take just two aspects about India’s changing demographics: skewed gender ratios and decrease in birth/fertility rates.
Flagged off as among the most imbalanced in the world, the ratio among children up to the age of six is now down to 927 girls per 1,000 boys. This is already, in some geographic areas and communities, leading to reverse dowries, and exchanges between brother/sister combinations. Add to this, increasing women power in general, and this could lead to some dramatic new social trends. (But with fewer women voting, it could mean quite an opposite set of implications too!)
Now combine this with the fact that some states have better gender ratios. Kerala, for example, has more women while Haryana has less. A small news item in a magazine reported, quite some time ago, a large number of mixed marriages between Keralites and a certain district in Haryana!
According to the 2001 census, population growth is higher among Muslims, Christians and Buddhists, and the gender ratio among children below the age of six in these communities is also higher. So they have more daughters, while the Sikhs, for example, have the least number of daughters.
Consider the increase in inter caste, inter religion, inter state and inter language marriages this will lead to. (Something that is, in any case, already on the rise.) Besides lower usage of mother tongues, mixed food habits, festive celebrations and other such lifestyle changes, this could lead to a different gene pool (and hopefully lesser public/community conflicts). Some researches have also shown that inter caste marriages result in marginally lower fertility than intra caste marriages.
Delayed marriages and delayed children also mean a different kind of parenting. More single children could mean different attitudes, and unavailability of family support as they grow up could lead to a different bag of problems.
Having only daughters, and delayed age of daughter’s marriage means daughters stay with parents longer, sometimes supporting them and caring for them in their old age.
The thing to remember in all this is that every such change for marketers means re looking at product and service portfolios. Patterns in finance, health, real estate, education and foods will surely change. Not to mention ripple effects on mental health, retirement planning and say, health insurance, to name but a few.
The other rather sensitive factor that has been highly debated in the West, but not so much in India, is the impact of the fact that the brighter, more educated women are the first to have fewer children – so there are fewer children among the elite and more children among the so called lesser intelligent, and this could affect national productivity and the gene pool.
Ageing population in advanced countries is hugely impacting marketing imperatives, leave alone government policies and the national economy. Some countries have been caught napping, while some started discussions over a decade ago. Japan for example, called academicians, experts in demographics, economists, sociologists, lawyers, political scientists, doctors and businessmen to come together to discuss and debate the implications and evolve solutions.
Who then is thinking of and debating the impact of the changing demography of India?
Most of the time the government is - understandably - preoccupied with the GDP, the vote banks and the borders.
Most of the time marketing is - understandably - preoccupied with the next quarter’s sales and the optimal use of media money in the next cricket championship; or in the more forward planning companies - next year’s relaunch with improved pack graphics and a new variant with an extra ingredient.
And most of the time, mainline media is - understandably - preoccupied with children caught in wells, global buyouts or Karan Johar’s latest moral pronouncement.
In the midst of all this, R and D and predictive Product Planning in organisations that wish to stay ahead, should start looking aggressively at population studies as a rich source of ideas for the future.
Product Planning must in fact lie at the center of a triangle, that has at its three corners: sociology, economics and genetics, all of which are linked to demography.
Marketers must start actively understanding the real meaning of demography. For change often drops in sooner than we think. Let’s at least have a point of view, if not a plan.
No comments:
Post a Comment